Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.354939 1.423140 1.493704 1.572329 1.657685 1.747766 1.850307
2025-11-02 1.246296 1.342331 1.445767 1.566080 1.702979 1.854871 2.037507
2025-11-09 1.166367 1.276605 1.398472 1.544333 1.715720 1.912700 2.159193
2025-11-16 1.103914 1.223342 1.358073 1.523030 1.721960 1.957364 2.262096
2025-11-23 1.063107 1.191008 1.337904 1.521449 1.748104 2.023692 2.392135
2025-11-30 1.034166 1.170049 1.328682 1.530648 1.785663 2.103873 2.542917
2025-12-07 0.995420 1.134967 1.299995 1.513285 1.787503 2.137066 2.632326
2025-12-14 0.955751 1.096760 1.265320 1.485950 1.773995 2.148017 2.690400
2025-12-21 0.925644 1.068849 1.241836 1.471090 1.774995 2.176987 2.773945
2025-12-28 0.910930 1.059174 1.240357 1.483863 1.812321 2.256194 2.934022
2026-01-04 0.890893 1.041911 1.228313 1.481833 1.828941 2.306839 3.054916
2026-01-11 0.878994 1.034350 1.228131 1.495079 1.866545 2.388566 3.228677
2026-01-18 0.860298 1.017961 1.216487 1.493167 1.883944 2.443666 3.368397
2026-01-25 0.841430 1.000744 1.203119 1.488249 1.896663 2.492415 3.502159
2026-02-01 0.817806 0.976546 1.179587 1.468122 1.886068 2.504739 3.575473
2026-02-08 0.795746 0.953734 1.157109 1.448451 1.874931 2.515103 3.645578
2026-02-15 0.781823 0.941201 1.147946 1.446990 1.890379 2.567411 3.793310
2026-02-22 0.772355 0.934241 1.145982 1.455488 1.920870 2.645098 3.994095
2026-03-01 0.754579 0.915664 1.127535 1.439446 1.912959 2.659561 4.078125
2026-03-08 0.734380 0.893347 1.103332 1.414175 1.889596 2.646947 4.108780
2026-03-15 0.719091 0.877314 1.087391 1.400428 1.883526 2.662762 4.196209
2026-03-22 0.713221 0.873892 1.088828 1.412245 1.918068 2.749384 4.434340
2026-03-29 0.703059 0.864325 1.081328 1.410367 1.930456 2.798139 4.599663